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Prediction markets for Producer of the Year

Everything is Commensurable, the perpetual stock multimarket

Mar 18, 3:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8424

Will a cybertruck model still be produced ten years after Elon Musk stops working for Tesla.

Apr 1, 5:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.2%chance

580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

158

Which year will the first nuclear power plant in Poland start producing power?

Nov 17, 10:12 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

241596

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

48.74%chance

162332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1632

839

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.65%chance

678513

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2655

1191

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 20M views before 2025?

Jan 8, 10:48 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

54.4%chance

321641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

723

Will the winner of the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination contest in American Samoa win any other contest?

Mar 7, 5:55 AMApr 1, 4:59 AM

53.55%chance

8278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1273

953

Will AI "smart glasses" be a popular AI wearable form factor by 2027? (eg Meta Ray Bans)

Mar 25, 10:24 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

50%chance

381691

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

938

Will we wake up in a changed world in 2025?

Jan 1, 4:31 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

13.5%chance

654203

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1088

1038

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?

Jan 5, 12:58 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM

50%chance

232549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

932

By the end of 2025 will general AIs like GPT-4o make better music than specialist AIs like Udio did in spring of 2024?

May 16, 4:43 AMJan 8, 7:59 AM

65.2%chance

251196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1042

970

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 100M views before 2026?

Jan 17, 7:15 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

60.7%chance

572283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

786

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