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Prediction markets for Priority
Will I still consider improving AI X-Safety my top priority on EOY 2024?
Jan 6, 9:55 AM
Dec 31, 2:59 PM
61.38%
chance
15
232
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1028
978
What percentage of the reports/papers Rethink Priorities produces in 2024 will get published in peer-reviewed journals?
Jan 8, 10:47 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
18.52%
chance
8
117
Option
Votes
YES
NO
232
115
Will the Global Priorities Institute still exist in 2030 ?
Apr 17, 7:16 PM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
64.87%
chance
2
55
Option
Votes
NO
YES
184
107
Will Juvenile Life Without Parole (JLWOP) sentencing become a major political priority for either party before 2030?
Mar 10, 3:37 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
48.5%
chance
6
84
Option
Votes
NO
YES
220
219
In 2024, what will be the lowest Bitcoin mempool fees for "Low Priority" transactions as listed on mempool.space?
Dec 29, 12:07 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
3
54
In Jan 2027, Building Effective Altruism (or similar) will be on 80,000 hours top priority list
May 3, 4:24 PM
Jan 31, 11:59 PM
68.61%
chance
4
36
Option
Votes
NO
YES
166
107
Will "LLMs for Alignment Research: a safety priority?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Apr 5, 3:10 PM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
12.72%
chance
1
10
Option
Votes
YES
NO
130
118
In Jan 2027, Catastrophic Pandemics (or similar) will be on 80,000 hours top priority list
May 3, 4:24 PM
Jan 31, 11:59 PM
80.16%
chance
9
313
Option
Votes
NO
YES
261
155
In 2024, what will be the highest Bitcoin mempool fees for "High Priority" transactions as listed on mempool.space?
Dec 29, 12:12 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
2
30
In Jan 2027, Risks from Artificial Intelligence (or similar) will be on 80,000 hours top priority list
May 3, 4:23 PM
Jan 31, 11:59 PM
93.89%
chance
8
572
Option
Votes
NO
YES
340
109
Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2027?
Jun 30, 9:06 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
3
235
What should be the priority: saving hostages or eliminating Hamas?
Nov 2, 4:28 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
729
0
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