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Presence News
Prediction markets for Presence
Prediction markets for Presence
By 2035, will the presence of anomalously high levels of phosphine on Venus be confirmed by spacecraft?
Sep 29, 8:57 PM
Dec 2, 4:59 AM
29.76%
chance
13
359
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1084
951
Will the presence of NHI on earth be acknowledged by several governments in 2024?
Dec 18, 6:27 AM
Jan 1, 2:59 AM
23.81%
chance
11
493
Option
Votes
NO
YES
998
913
Will the US president confirm the presence of Non-Human Intelligence inside our solar system before the end of 2024?
Oct 20, 6:22 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
7.75%
chance
24
3580
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1100
958
Will nasa will discover the presence of alien about 2024?
Apr 9, 12:29 AM
Dec 31, 9:59 PM
4.31%
chance
20
1194
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1275
349
Will Manifold have established a significant presence on Instagram and TikTok by the end of 2024?
Apr 25, 10:04 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
21.52%
chance
5
209
Option
Votes
YES
NO
307
82
By 2035, will we have measured an exoplanet atmosphere whose composition is best explained by the presence of life?
Apr 16, 10:05 AM
Dec 31, 4:01 PM
87.92%
chance
8
325
Option
Votes
NO
YES
351
51
Will researchers discover unintended presence or utilization of steganography in LLM outputs by 2026? [Gwern's Idea]
Apr 23, 8:37 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
36.87%
chance
5
40
Option
Votes
YES
NO
219
151
In what year will humanity establish a lasting presence on the Moon?
May 5, 2:41 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
32.7%
chance
3
163
Option
Votes
YES
NO
406
209
During which decade will people establish a permanent presence on the moon?
Jan 17, 11:16 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
8
288
How many people protested hanania's presence at manifest by not coming?
Sep 25, 5:55 PM
0
0
What security measures will Israel have put in place 6 months after the war in Gaza is over?
Jan 12, 7:41 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
12
242
If/when a nation in each geopolitical sphere first/next becomes communist, will it be invaded within a year?
Jul 1, 7:44 PM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
2
43
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