Positions News

Will 2024 prove to be a pivotal year for Cold War 2 as posited by Noah Smith?

Mar 20, 8:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

25.21%chance

191082

OptionVotes

YES

13210

12847

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

Apr 8, 4:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

97%chance

149559419

OptionVotes

YES

7159

1294

If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?

Feb 26, 6:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.65%chance

16762246

OptionVotes

YES

6748

3868

Will at least one of the "apocalypse markets" be resolved positively after the apocalypse?

Jun 10, 7:57 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

27%chance

17733

OptionVotes

YES

1024

978

Will Vivek Ramaswamy hold a position in the Trump White House?

Dec 27, 8:23 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

82.58%chance

13215428

OptionVotes

YES

5297

861

By 2025, will Google be in a winning position in the "AI war" against Microsoft?

Mar 21, 10:55 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

36.52%chance

19828097

OptionVotes

YES

2258

1985

What percent of those taking rapamycin to slow aging will comment a positive or neutral review?

Sep 5, 10:30 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

54.57%chance

12415

OptionVotes

YES

1406

1123

Will Dan Hendrycks believe xAI has had a meaningful positive impact on AI alignment at the end of 2024?

Jul 12, 6:08 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

48.25%chance

211255

OptionVotes

YES

1799

891

Will my all-time profit be positive by the end of the year?

Feb 12, 2:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

40%chance

181383

OptionVotes

YES

1420

532

By 2026, at least 1 phase 3 clinical trial shows positive results with DMT or 5-MeO-DMT for a mental disorder.

May 26, 3:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

56.27%chance

5170

OptionVotes

YES

1134

882

Will AGI, net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computers be realized by the end of 2039?

Sep 24, 10:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

29.86%chance

15768

OptionVotes

YES

1025

981

At close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.

Dec 13, 10:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.36%chance

211515

OptionVotes

YES

1426

1234

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Positions News

Prediction markets for Positions

Prediction markets for Positions

Prediction markets for Positions

Will 2024 prove to be a pivotal year for Cold War 2 as posited by Noah Smith?

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?

Will at least one of the "apocalypse markets" be resolved positively after the apocalypse?

Will Vivek Ramaswamy hold a position in the Trump White House?

By 2025, will Google be in a winning position in the "AI war" against Microsoft?

What percent of those taking rapamycin to slow aging will comment a positive or neutral review?

Will Dan Hendrycks believe xAI has had a meaningful positive impact on AI alignment at the end of 2024?

Will my all-time profit be positive by the end of the year?

By 2026, at least 1 phase 3 clinical trial shows positive results with DMT or 5-MeO-DMT for a mental disorder.

Will AGI, net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computers be realized by the end of 2039?

At close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Positions

Prediction markets for Positions

Prediction markets for Positions

Will 2024 prove to be a pivotal year for Cold War 2 as posited by Noah Smith?

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?

Will at least one of the "apocalypse markets" be resolved positively after the apocalypse?

Will Vivek Ramaswamy hold a position in the Trump White House?

By 2025, will Google be in a winning position in the "AI war" against Microsoft?

What percent of those taking rapamycin to slow aging will comment a positive or neutral review?