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Poke It Out News
Prediction markets for Poke It Out
Prediction markets for Poke It Out
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PM
Feb 1, 7:59 AM
43.11%
chance
714
302497
Option
Votes
NO
YES
21793
17437
⚔️ Can any Manifold user defeat Tumbles at Smash Bros Melee? ⚔️
Mar 5, 3:38 PM
Sep 2, 6:59 AM
44.62%
chance
11
301
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1003
990
Will pure LK-99 turn out to be significantly toxic to humans?
Jul 31, 12:00 AM
Jan 1, 12:13 AM
12%
chance
14
507
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1384
889
Will anyone be charged with interfering with the 2024 US general election before 2026?
Jan 17, 10:05 PM
Jan 1, 10:00 AM
42.56%
chance
4
36
Option
Votes
YES
NO
138
123
Will the Bennu asteroid sample contain terrestrial amino acids?
Sep 22, 10:08 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
19.26%
chance
8
213
Option
Votes
YES
NO
347
116
By the end of 2026, will AI have empowered me to build a bot that can reach the top 500 in the current gen of OU?
Oct 16, 3:38 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
38%
chance
4
51
Option
Votes
YES
NO
110
74
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