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Prediction markets for Picture in Picture

Before 2026, Will DL systems outperform humans at describing a picture in words to make human mental images match it?

Jun 19, 12:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.46%chance

113656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

970

Will the individual who destroyed the picture of Lord Balfor in Trinity College be charged with a criminal offense?

Mar 9, 7:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.5%chance

22821

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

953

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)

Dec 29, 6:46 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

66.69%chance

281594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

898

Will a major motion picture studio release a Skibidi Toilet movie in 2024?

Oct 5, 10:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.1%chance

161713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1340

830

In what year will you first be able to take a picture of a meal and get an accurate calorie count?

Mar 26, 1:11 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

74.3%chance

211322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1367

592

Will a Manifold user show up in the same picture as Taylor Swift before the end of 2024?

Feb 28, 8:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.48%chance

140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

120

Will a Manifold user show up in the same picture as Donald Trump before the end of 2024?

Feb 28, 8:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.89%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

107

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2026 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2027)

Mar 11, 5:29 AMApr 1, 3:59 AM

61.51%chance

371

OptionVotes

NO

YES

189

137

Will a "The Sims"like game allow you to import pictures of real life people into characters in the game by EOY 2026?

Oct 21, 9:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.31%chance

224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

94

85

Will a Manifold user show up in the same picture as Joe Biden before the end of 2024?

Feb 28, 8:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.51%chance

361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

126

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2025 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2026)

Mar 11, 5:29 AMApr 1, 3:59 AM

57.59%chance

5102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

219

183

Picture of Trump in or near a Tesla cybertruck by 2025

Jul 18, 5:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.99%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

71

69

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Microsoft Enhances Picture in Picture Mode in Edge Browser, Some Users Blocked from YouTube
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9 months
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