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Prediction markets for Pi

Will humanity calculate pi to more than 1 Quadrillion (10^15) digits before the end of 2030?

Sep 15, 1:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.49%chance

15320

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1094

959

Is the quadrillionth digit of Pi a 6?

Mar 7, 3:48 AMJan 13, 8:00 AM

10.07%chance

27371

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

996

Is pi normal?

Oct 19, 12:35 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

93.61%chance

141167

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1364

920

Will low carbon vehicle sales (e.g. electric, hydrogen, PI hybrid) be more than 50% of all car sales in the USA by 2030?

Oct 1, 1:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

77.84%chance

9225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

253

160

When will low carbon vehicle sales (e.g. electric, hydrogen, PI hybrid) be more than 90% of all car sales in the USA?

Jul 30, 8:15 PMJul 31, 6:59 AM

36.95%chance

340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

336

260

Will a human set foot on the moon again via Artemis 3 or another mission before Pi Day 2026? (March 14th)

Dec 17, 10:25 PMMar 15, 3:59 AM

2.5%chance

111233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1999

900

Will low carbon vehicle sales (e.g. electric, hydrogen, PI hybrid) be more than 80% of all car sales in the USA by 2030?

Oct 1, 1:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.66%chance

7320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

253

131

Is pi^pi^pi^pi an integer?

Oct 19, 1:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

2.13%chance

422032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2657

879

Will Trump's VP pick be one of the current top 3? (Burgum, Rubio, Vance)

Jun 15, 2:23 PMJul 31, 6:59 AM

71.1%chance

383163364

OptionVotes

NO

YES

76260

35971

What will the single largest post-pivot trade on Manifold be in 2024?

Jun 20, 9:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

239236

Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?

Jun 9, 7:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.55%chance

141360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10098

9894

Will 2024 prove to be a pivotal year for Cold War 2 as posited by Noah Smith?

Mar 20, 8:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

25.21%chance

191082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13210

12847

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