Persuader News

Will Anthropic, before 2035, completely halt development of AI and attempt to persuade other organizations to do so?

Mar 7, 1:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.69%chance

11268

OptionVotes

YES

1166

923

Will the BRICS countries announce their intention to de-dollarize at their October 2024 summit?

Dec 1, 9:05 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

32.85%chance

453032

OptionVotes

YES

2028

650

Will gmail or outlook have a "persuasion detection system" built into their email services by 2025 end?

Apr 23, 12:36 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

17.62%chance

674006

OptionVotes

YES

1882

1140

Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2024?

Dec 26, 9:13 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.9%chance

15326534

OptionVotes

YES

2384

1242

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Oct 25, 8:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.43%chance

757989

OptionVotes

YES

1113

956

Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034.

Dec 31, 3:39 PMDec 9, 11:59 PM

69.52%chance

321331

OptionVotes

YES

1150

909

Will gmail or outlook have a "persuasion detection system" built into their email services by 2024 end?

Apr 23, 12:35 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

15.96%chance

23935

OptionVotes

YES

1160

944

Will there be any genetic modification which substantially reduces suffering in vertebrates by end of 2026?

Feb 10, 3:52 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16%chance

16300

OptionVotes

YES

1047

974

Vox Future Perfect 2024: 45 percent of the US egg supply will be cage-free by late November?

Feb 1, 5:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.84%chance

235

OptionVotes

YES

Which women will vote for Trump?

Jun 15, 5:32 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

8211358

Will I go back to being a utilitarian by the end of 2024?

Jan 1, 12:49 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.33%chance

754

OptionVotes

YES

160

139

Will Boom Overture fly (supersonic) before 2040?

Nov 15, 10:03 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

66.48%chance

6233

OptionVotes

YES

239

234

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Persuader News

Prediction markets for Persuader

Prediction markets for Persuader

Prediction markets for Persuader

Will Anthropic, before 2035, completely halt development of AI and attempt to persuade other organizations to do so?

Will the BRICS countries announce their intention to de-dollarize at their October 2024 summit?

Will gmail or outlook have a "persuasion detection system" built into their email services by 2025 end?

Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2024?

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034.

Will gmail or outlook have a "persuasion detection system" built into their email services by 2024 end?

Will there be any genetic modification which substantially reduces suffering in vertebrates by end of 2026?

Vox Future Perfect 2024: 45 percent of the US egg supply will be cage-free by late November?

Which women will vote for Trump?

Will I go back to being a utilitarian by the end of 2024?

Will Boom Overture fly (supersonic) before 2040?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Persuader

Prediction markets for Persuader

Prediction markets for Persuader

Will Anthropic, before 2035, completely halt development of AI and attempt to persuade other organizations to do so?

Will the BRICS countries announce their intention to de-dollarize at their October 2024 summit?

Will gmail or outlook have a "persuasion detection system" built into their email services by 2025 end?

Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2024?

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034.

Will gmail or outlook have a "persuasion detection system" built into their email services by 2024 end?