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Prediction markets for Personality of the Year

Who will be Time Magazine's 2024 Person of the Year?

Nov 3, 8:15 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

534343743

Who will be the TIME 2024 Person of the Year?

Dec 4, 3:40 AMDec 11, 7:59 AM

17046408

Will an AI become TIME's Person of The Year by 2030?

Jan 30, 10:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.66%chance

11712233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2304

1848

Will an AI become TIME's Person of The Year by 2025?

Nov 30, 2:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.68%chance

13924292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2779

1685

Who will be Manifold's 2024 Person of The Year?

Jan 10, 10:13 AMJan 15, 10:59 PM

1337280

Will an AI system, product, company, concept, or affiliated person be nominated for TIME's 2024 Person of The Year?

Dec 7, 5:29 PMDec 13, 7:59 AM

77.19%chance

9811636

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1244

883

Will Manifold successfully predict the Time's Person of the Year 2024?

Dec 8, 2:59 PMDec 7, 10:59 PM

46.15%chance

19603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

958

[Metaculus] Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?

Nov 3, 5:21 PMDec 14, 12:00 AM

64.5%chance

584364

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

966

Will the 2024 TIME person of the year have an IMDB page?

Mar 14, 10:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69%chance

12282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

962

Will Sam Altman be Time Person of the Year by 2028?

Feb 8, 4:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.52%chance

8632085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1340

1008

Will a monarch win Time Person of the Year before 2028?

Oct 30, 10:50 AMFeb 7, 5:59 AM

20.94%chance

25983

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

918

Will Xi Jinping ever be Time Person of the Year?

Aug 22, 10:56 PMAug 23, 3:59 AM

40.54%chance

13308

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

923

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