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Prediction markets for Performance mode

Will xAI release a model that matches or surpasses GPT4 performance in 2024?

May 28, 9:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.54%chance

8719812

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2042

1092

Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

Jun 14, 4:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

55%chance

364857

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

905

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.25%chance

12323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

975

Will OpenAI Release a Model Capable of Reliably performing Gradeschool Math from Reasoning by Jan 1, 2025?

Jan 4, 10:59 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

73.06%chance

351160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

959

By 2026 will any RL agent with learned causal models of its environment achieve superhuman performance on >=10 Atari environments?

Nov 15, 5:00 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.22%chance

162710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

949

By January 2026, will a language model with similar performance to GPT-4 be able to run locally on the latest iPhone?

Dec 11, 4:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

77.01%chance

261069

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1383

784

Will any open-source model achieve GPT-4 level performance on MMLU through 2024?

Sep 10, 8:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

83.13%chance

211740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1483

767

Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all Atari environments by 2025?

Apr 8, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.31%chance

14398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1208

878

Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all OpenAI gym environments by 2025?

Apr 8, 5:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.19%chance

13341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1082

919

When will a language model be fine-tuned via self-play or expert iteration and achieve significant performance increase?

Dec 17, 4:47 PMJan 1, 4:47 PM

12.92%chance

14272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

976

By January 2026, will we have a language model with similar performance to GPT-3.5 (i.e. ChatGPT as of Feb-23) that is small enough to run locally on the highest end iPhone available at the time?

Feb 13, 2:52 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

92.47%chance

244450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1639

883

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Oct 27, 5:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.61%chance

11715

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1249

958

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