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Prediction markets for Paradigm
Prediction markets for Paradigm
Are autoregressive LLMs a doomed paradigm? (Inspired by LeCun's tweet)
Apr 9, 6:05 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
64.72%
chance
25
1501
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1243
831
Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?
Jan 14, 12:56 PM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
31.7%
chance
46
4177
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1059
804
Will the first AGI be built mostly within the deep learning paradigm?
May 21, 6:31 PM
May 28, 9:59 PM
82%
chance
21
3384
Option
Votes
NO
YES
2134
469
Will a new deep learning paradigm replace the transformer by the end of 2024?
Dec 17, 7:34 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
17.62%
chance
16
407
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1178
937
Will Mamba be the de-facto paradigm for LLMs over transformers by 2025?
Dec 11, 8:11 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
10%
chance
37
3056
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2314
734
In August 2028, will we use the same (textual diff) paradigm for reviewing code changes?
Aug 18, 3:07 AM
Jun 6, 6:59 AM
95.11%
chance
14
1613
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1711
901
Will Conjecture's CoEm paradigm generate more than $1 Million USD in revenue before 2026?
Feb 15, 4:25 PM
Jan 22, 10:59 PM
34.36%
chance
7
230
Option
Votes
YES
NO
208
144
Will a major financial inst. use measures to obstruct deployment of AGI due to its paradigm-shifting nature before 2028?
Nov 22, 1:59 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
43%
chance
2
12
Option
Votes
YES
NO
78
63
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Mar 24, 2:01 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
513
325877
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?
May 24, 8:48 PM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
13
6002
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Jun 22, 6:46 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
10
2468
What is true about gpt2-chatbot?
Apr 30, 2:46 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
93
54054
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