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Prediction markets for Parades

Will "Leading The Parade" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Feb 16, 6:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.64%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

69

Paris Olympic Opening Ceremony Mega-Market 🌎🏟️🇫🇷📺

Mar 18, 3:25 AMJul 27, 6:59 AM

301284

Are autoregressive LLMs a doomed paradigm? (Inspired by LeCun's tweet)

Apr 9, 6:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.72%chance

251501

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1243

831

Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?

Jan 14, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31.7%chance

464177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

804

Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before the end of 2027?

Dec 31, 2:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.67%chance

18553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

966

Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before 2030?

Dec 31, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.38%chance

11328

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1077

963

Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.

Mar 25, 3:16 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

36.9%chance

1043

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

982

Will the first AGI be built mostly within the deep learning paradigm?

May 21, 6:31 PMMay 28, 9:59 PM

82%chance

213384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2134

469

Will a new deep learning paradigm replace the transformer by the end of 2024?

Dec 17, 7:34 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

17.62%chance

16407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1178

937

Will Mamba be the de-facto paradigm for LLMs over transformers by 2025?

Dec 11, 8:11 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10%chance

373056

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2314

734

The solution to Fermi Paradox's great filter question is that the greater solar system is all inside a petri dish

Jun 3, 8:42 PMJul 4, 6:59 AM

5.61%chance

275566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4104

244

In August 2028, will we use the same (textual diff) paradigm for reviewing code changes?

Aug 18, 3:07 AMJun 6, 6:59 AM

95.11%chance

141613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1711

901

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