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Prediction markets for Ors

Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Apr 13, 10:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

22.14%chance

1585789718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18745

9012

Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind suffer a significant security incident by the end of 2024?

Oct 3, 1:17 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

53.65%chance

534175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24498

22231

Will @firstuserhere coauthor a publication in AIstats, AAAI, ICLR or JMLR before end of 2024? ($11,000M subsidy)

Sep 23, 11:48 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

48.29%chance

5069493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14331

8857

Will @firstuserhere coauthor a NeurIPS or ICML conference publication before end of 2024? (10,000 Mana subsidy)

Sep 4, 1:34 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

24%chance

100261932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20163

5966

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

32.91%chance

4814688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13903

7280

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

31.37%chance

5510299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11492

10773

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

29.47%chance

499193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9958

9870

If Trump is elected, will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 11, 6:59 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM

65%chance

481947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7961

5891

If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?

Jan 24, 4:35 AMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

28.48%chance

915886

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1819

1347

Will Portland, Oregon have a daily high temperature of 104F (40C) or greater in 2024? 🌡

Feb 20, 6:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

63.32%chance

25866

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6478

5608

Will a religion that has some AI as its god, oracle or priest have at least 1 million churchgoers before 2051?

Dec 16, 9:59 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

66.24%chance

11541403

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2660

1344

Will Manifold be acquired by Polymarket or Kalshi by end of 2025?

May 10, 4:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.39%chance

361440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1697

500

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