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Prediction markets for Oriental
Prediction markets for Oriental
WhiteBox Research will have at least four fellows spending ≥10 h/wk on an alignment-oriented project by EoY 2024.
Jun 20, 12:08 PM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
78.52%
chance
3
989
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1912
523
Will pedophilia become a recognized sexual orientation similar to the others before 2030?
Dec 13, 12:11 AM
Jan 1, 5:00 AM
7.03%
chance
14
449
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1301
946
Will any other lunar landers soft touchdown in an unintended orientation in 2024?
Feb 26, 5:14 PM
Jan 1, 12:59 PM
32.51%
chance
6
91
Option
Votes
YES
NO
269
187
what is joffmans sexual orientation
Jul 25, 12:32 AM
Nov 1, 4:00 AM
4
1255
How do you orient your phone in your pocket? (most commonly)
Jan 1, 3:53 PM
13
0
What weird unexpected things will correlate with being a conservative in my planned omnibus correlational survey?
Jun 14, 7:38 AM
Feb 26, 12:59 PM
137
21944
What will be true of the partner or partners in my next romantic relationship?
Jun 18, 3:03 PM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
4
183
What is worse than committing a financial crime?
May 15, 5:46 AM
Jul 5, 6:00 PM
159
39267
Which virtue will be the focus of LessWrong Petrov Day 2024?
Oct 3, 2:45 PM
Sep 21, 3:59 AM
10
244
Will China be competitive in the LLM race compared to OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google by end of 2024?
Oct 13, 1:41 PM
Dec 31, 4:59 AM
39.65%
chance
341
124157
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1953
1373
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
Apr 26, 7:16 PM
Dec 31, 11:00 PM
73.86%
chance
130
10893
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1694
1689
Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035?
Oct 23, 10:05 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
79.48%
chance
35
3900
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1504
899
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