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Prediction markets for Ordinary People
Prediction markets for Ordinary People
Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 7:46 PM
Jan 2, 6:59 AM
70.5%
chance
13
171
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1003
990
Between Oct 1 2024 and Apr 1 2025, will US-election-related violence kill at least 100 Americans?
Feb 3, 7:36 PM
Apr 3, 6:59 AM
12.56%
chance
10
310
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1087
968
Will Andrés Manuel López Obrador be the de facto head of government of Mexico on July 1st, 2025?
Mar 7, 1:49 AM
Jul 1, 1:59 PM
8.01%
chance
11
2314
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1311
929
Which of these new vehicle types will Tesla produce by 2034?
Jan 6, 6:39 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
56
3152
Will the Lorxus Favor still be in active circulation as of the end of 2028?
Nov 22, 8:07 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
83.58%
chance
6
145
Option
Votes
NO
YES
190
102
Vox Future Perfect 2024: Waymo will expand to a new city?
Feb 1, 4:54 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
85%
chance
6
262
Option
Votes
NO
YES
257
111
Will ordinary cinemas in English-speaking countries start showing subtitles for English-language films before 2030?
Mar 9, 11:46 AM
Jan 1, 12:59 PM
87.2%
chance
8
653
Option
Votes
NO
YES
473
174
What civil time system will be used on Mars?
Jan 10, 1:11 AM
Jan 1, 12:59 PM
26
1497
Arb bots for confident markets
Nov 18, 10:48 PM
0
0
Articles
Latest stories
Cinematographer John Bailey Dies at 81 After Leading Academy Through #MeToo Movement
Authors
4
8 months
Culture
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