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Top stories

Silo Finance Launches on Optimism with 100,000 OP Rewards and VELO Lending Market
Authors
5
12 days
Crypto
Morpho Launches on Base, Expands DeFi Lending with MetaMorpho Vaults, Doubling TVL
Authors
6
13 days
Crypto

Prediction markets for Optimism

Will Greg Brockman's bullish optimism on AI in 2024 prove true?

Jan 2, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.51%chance

687196

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2346

1013

By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?

Nov 18, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.64%chance

251921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

566

Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?

Feb 6, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.67%chance

22510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1139

940

Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.

Mar 25, 3:16 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

36.9%chance

1043

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

982

Will the largest AI training run in 2025 utilize Sophia, Second-order Clipped Stochastic Optimization?

May 25, 5:58 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

18.06%chance

191236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1341

881

Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?

Jan 18, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.92%chance

241684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

869

Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?

Nov 15, 10:06 AMDec 31, 11:30 PM

61%chance

251516

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

911

Will "My techno-optimism [By Vitalik Buterin]" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Jun 12, 6:48 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.94%chance

1400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1397

947

Does white win stalemate-wins chess with optimal play?

Jan 23, 9:08 PMJan 24, 11:59 PM

9.59%chance

182649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1278

797

Will the "Lover's Leap" in Backgammon be proved optimal by 2040?

Dec 28, 12:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.78%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

90

56

World Optimism Stock (Permanent)

Jan 27, 7:48 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

111692

OptionVotes

NO

YES

329

193

>2000 number theory will show up in optimization

Oct 29, 1:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.53%chance

9278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

71

Articles

Latest stories

Vitalik Buterin Backs MegaETH, Raises $20 Million for High-Performance Blockchain with 100,000 TPS
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Arbitrum Dominates Ethereum L2 with 1 Billion Transactions, 500x Cheaper Fees, $11.66B Volume; Base Surpasses in Daily Activity
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Blockchain Projects Launch Cyber Mainnet for Social Apps on Superchain with Incentives & Optimism's OP Stack
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Ethereum Layer 2s (Arbitrum, Optimism, Base) Process 82% of Transactions, Mainnet Activity Drops Post EIP 4844 Fee Reduction
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Solana Exceeds Ethereum in DEX Volume, Achieves 60% of Its Fees; Flow Hits 1M Swaps, $2.5M Volume
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Mode Token Drops 60%, $550M FDV, 550M Tokens Distributed in Airdrop
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Optimism's 'We Love the Art' Contest: 1.2M OP Tokens, $175K Prize, 28 Hours Left
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Velodrome and Aerodrome DEX Front-Ends Compromised in $40,000 Attack
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