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Prediction markets for Opinion

What's an unconventional opinion or idea that you've encountered which most people might not agree with? [FREE RESPONSE]

Oct 9, 8:29 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

498156

Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.71%chance

713477

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1085

886

Opinion: Democrat (Yes) V Republican (No)

Feb 22, 3:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.63%chance

187024

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

931

Will US public opinion shift towards Israel during 2024 (according to gallop)?

Mar 28, 5:00 AMMar 31, 12:59 PM

31.56%chance

311188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

868

Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2075?

Jan 10, 6:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.2%chance

24485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

936

In Jan 2028, will getting opinions from top forecaster be commonplace in non-profit decision making? [Resolves to Poll]

Sep 26, 12:44 AMOct 3, 6:59 AM

22%chance

10410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

978

Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2040?

Jan 10, 6:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.22%chance

22371

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

884

Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2050?

Jan 10, 6:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

69.82%chance

371280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1208

881

Will Vivek Ramaswami create controversy with opinions about IQ race differences in 2024?

Jan 3, 8:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.07%chance

10285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1145

953

At the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will have a strongly negative opinion of Scott Alexander?

Nov 21, 3:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

12.45%chance

24860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

977

Will @EliezerYudkowsky reverse his opinion on AI safety, before 2030?

Feb 24, 10:44 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

5.68%chance

333411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1698

899

In 2040, what will the prevailing opinion of Edward Snowden be? Resolves as % from traitor to hero.

Oct 5, 4:50 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM

49.8%chance

7152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

204

193

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