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Prediction markets for OpenAI Assistants

Will OpenAI demo a desktop or browser assistant that automates white-collar tasks before 2026?

Mar 28, 9:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

77.22%chance

361162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1481

784

Will OpenAI "merge and assist" by end of 2026?

Jan 2, 2:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16%chance

322429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1278

913

Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before 2026?

May 4, 1:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.93%chance

10210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

960

Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before 2031?

May 4, 1:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.6%chance

12481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1335

812

Will OpenAI "merge and assist" before building AGI? (closes 2030)

Jul 18, 6:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.12%chance

5131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

184

Will the top public OpenAI assistant rate China as more military powerful than the US in 2020?

May 27, 5:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.97%chance

242

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

88

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

May 1, 9:58 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

36.73%chance

613183955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18228

10192

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)

Jun 19, 7:06 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM

53.79%chance

757166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2447

1858

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2025? (1000 mana subsidy)

Jun 19, 7:17 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM

10.61%chance

9913015

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6105

1121

Will I get a software engineering job within 3 months?

May 29, 3:53 AMSep 2, 6:59 AM

25%chance

6619183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

577

Will my stock trading model exceed 100% CAGR?

Jan 23, 3:07 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

18.37%chance

369823

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

910

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

77.47%chance

17721

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1238

790

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ML-BENCH Proposed to Assess LLMs' Effectiveness in Leveraging Functions
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7 months
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