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Prediction markets for Open Actions

[Mega Independent]/Prop bets: What will be true of the next James Bond movie?

Nov 23, 9:13 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

11843689

Will a video game with AI-rendered graphics get 1 million downloads by 2030?

Feb 21, 5:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43%chance

10919074

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1394

903

Will a video game with AI-rendered graphics get 1 million downloads by 2038?

Feb 18, 1:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

77.32%chance

503683

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

954

In 2024, will the US and Iran hold talks to limit Iran's nuclear program--e.g., to revive or replace the JCPOA?

Dec 2, 6:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.25%chance

372133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2094

884

Will any of the Top 3 labs release an initial commitment regarding AI consciousness prior to January 1, 2025?

Mar 6, 10:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28%chance

362262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

946

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.87%chance

221229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1102

939

Will Ukraine be an official member of NATO by 2025?

Jan 14, 9:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.05%chance

10515818

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3654

1182

Will there be a death at a Trump Rally in 2024?

Jan 13, 12:52 AMJan 23, 7:59 AM

29.9%chance

20921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

968

Do humans have free will?

Aug 19, 8:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.45%chance

34899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

854

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.88%chance

161520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1243

874

How many blog posts will Scott Alexander make to ACX in 2024? Question resolves to log(post count + 1)/log(300).

Dec 25, 10:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.97%chance

12613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1223

919

By 2024 end, a model exhibits action recognition (video) equivalent to human level accuracy on Something Something V2?

Apr 23, 12:55 PMDec 31, 8:00 AM

39.72%chance

13145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

989

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Lens Protocol Launches NFT Open Actions with 5% Mint Affiliate Fee to Enhance Creator Distribution
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