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Prediction markets for OpEd

Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Apr 13, 10:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

22.98%chance

1587790011

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18187

9175

Will the 400B+ open source Llama 3 model rank higher than GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 on the lmsys leaderboard?

Aug 28, 2:56 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

60.36%chance

20254498

OptionVotes

NO

YES

32280

21687

Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind suffer a significant security incident by the end of 2024?

Oct 3, 1:17 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

53.65%chance

534175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24498

22231

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

May 1, 9:58 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

36.73%chance

613183955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18228

10192

Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?

Jun 11, 4:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.2%chance

18830259

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12476

8074

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.11%chance

4914888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13524

7471

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

31.36%chance

519543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10134

9353

Will China be competitive in the LLM race compared to OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google by end of 2024?

Oct 13, 1:41 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

47%chance

339122756

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2147

1119

Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)

Oct 15, 2:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.09%chance

26067937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3018

1673

Did an openAI model crack AES-192 encryption?

Nov 26, 8:44 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

0.97%chance

210153757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8163

1482

What will be the most impactful feature developed in 2024? (open for trading)

Apr 4, 3:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8502

Will OpenAI be valued more than a trillion dollar at anytime before 2034?

Jan 27, 7:01 PMFeb 4, 4:59 AM

44.92%chance

481057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

934

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