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Prediction markets for One Thing

Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?

Mar 31, 6:42 PMJul 6, 6:59 PM

333291509

What will be the next three purchases that I make because of this list? (400M bounties)

Dec 2, 9:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5127

The 10 people closest to me, and futurism and exciting stuff that happens, MultiMarket by mid 2030

Apr 10, 8:46 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

2240

Which beliefs are the most rationalist?

Jun 21, 8:10 PMJul 22, 4:59 AM

5917153

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

80.31%chance

391548406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16048

13103

If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed?

Nov 12, 2:34 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

49.74%chance

22664079

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2239

1473

Will we add periodic-filling limit orders in 2024?

Jun 13, 4:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.46%chance

276360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10322

9707

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.38%chance

6823983

OptionVotes

YES

NO

26232

3281

Will the four year Bitcoin bull / bear market cycle continue for the 2023-2026 cycle?

Dec 11, 6:14 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

26.01%chance

9714588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10480

9068

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

Mar 24, 2:01 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

514325984

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.47%chance

13936016

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5517

1253

Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?

Apr 16, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.56%chance

252163582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2308

1375

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