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On Notice News
Prediction markets for On Notice
Prediction markets for On Notice
Will Manifold allow market creators to noticeably prohibit themselves from trading on their own markets?
Jan 8, 8:30 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
72.88%
chance
36
2368
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1008
973
Will Zelda TotK be a noticeably better experience on the switch successor?
Mar 28, 8:55 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
82.78%
chance
16
718
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1279
880
What will be true of OpenAI's Sora* model, at the end of 2025? [*see description]
Feb 15, 6:57 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
365
85514
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
Mar 31, 6:42 PM
Jul 6, 6:59 PM
333
289835
What scenes or cameos will happen in 'Deadpool & Wolverine'?
Jul 1, 6:49 PM
Aug 1, 3:59 AM
20
2611
What biological characteristics will the first proven aliens have?
Aug 7, 11:45 AM
Dec 31, 8:59 PM
14
977
Which virtue will be the focus of LessWrong Petrov Day 2024?
Oct 3, 2:45 PM
Sep 21, 3:59 AM
10
244
In What Year will the Costco Hotdog cost more than $1.50?
Dec 24, 6:31 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
8
1382
How will Manifold die?
Jun 5, 7:19 PM
Apr 21, 6:59 AM
30
1514
Alden's "cosmically ordained" relationship with Aulia Velra will be...
Jul 20, 3:57 PM
Jan 1, 6:59 AM
2
320
EA will have a noticeably less sexually libertine culture in 2025 for the 90th percentile EA, than before 2023, looking back.
Mar 1, 6:58 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
52.14%
chance
29
846
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1080
910
Will Trump appear noticeably older and weaker at the start of his documents trial than he did at the arraignment?
Jun 21, 12:18 PM
Oct 2, 3:59 AM
70.87%
chance
22
685
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1127
929
Articles
Latest stories
Michael Steele Puts 'MAGA' Trump 'On Notice', Challenges GOP Influence
Authors
7
4 months
Politics
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