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Prediction markets for Office AI

Will an AI be elected to public office in the USA by 2034? (850M subsidy)

Sep 28, 8:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

22.56%chance

462506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2447

1284

By 2033, Will an AI be elected to public office in a democracy?

Mar 25, 6:32 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

24.89%chance

471599

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

987

Will an AI be elected into any political office in any country before 2035?

Jan 30, 9:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

24.75%chance

512318

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

972

5) A number of Fortune 500 companies will create a new C-suite position: Chief AI Officer.

Dec 25, 1:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.04%chance

251160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1430

867

By Mar 2025 will Zvi think working in the EU AI Office is a good idea to reduce x-risk?

Feb 15, 1:45 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

60.32%chance

23424

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

948

Will anyone be elected to political office while promising to outsource all their decision-making to an AI before 2025?

Apr 13, 11:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.54%chance

562562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1273

981

Will an AI hold a high national office in the United States before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 19, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.97%chance

6272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

440

121

Will a major AI alignment office (eg Constellation/Lightcone/HAIST) give out free piksters to alignment ppl by EOY 2027?

Mar 9, 7:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.06%chance

115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

107

Who will be appointed to lead the EU AI Office?

Apr 4, 6:23 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4166

Will "The Office" (TV Show) actually get a reboot that would be ready to air before 2025?

Oct 3, 6:28 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

15.67%chance

17418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1340

884

If Trump is elected president, will he approve a new foreign aid package to Ukraine while he is in office?

Mar 9, 9:38 PMNov 1, 6:59 AM

59.96%chance

20717

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1073

940

8) The Microsoft/OpenAI relationship will begin to fray.

Dec 25, 1:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

68.29%chance

515113

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1178

893

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Microsoft Unveils Maia 100 and Cobalt AI Chips for Azure, Bing, Office, Set to Launch in 2024 at Ignite 2023
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