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October attacks News
Prediction markets for October attacks
Prediction markets for October attacks
[Metaculus] Will an independent review find UNRWA staff involvement in the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks?
Apr 23, 1:14 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
31.47%
chance
22
1921
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1052
797
On the first anniversary of October 7th attacks, will the Israel-Hamas war still be ongoing?
Mar 26, 5:28 AM
Oct 8, 6:59 AM
81.18%
chance
27
1056
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1626
777
Will Russia launch an armed attack against a NATO member by the end of October 2024?
Feb 8, 1:26 AM
Oct 31, 10:59 PM
2.79%
chance
14
1472
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1463
948
Will Hezbollah attack northern Israel before Sept. 2024, similarly to how Hamas attacked southern Israel on October 7?
Apr 29, 3:16 PM
Dec 31, 9:59 PM
16.76%
chance
9
231
Option
Votes
YES
NO
479
230
Will there be a terrorist attack deadlier than October 7th before 2030
Apr 2, 11:44 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
44.07%
chance
4
40
Option
Votes
YES
NO
201
161
Did Netanyahu know about the Hamas attack before it commenced?
Oct 8, 6:48 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
23.42%
chance
56
4235
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1288
870
Will Israel hold elections before 7th October 2024?
Jun 17, 9:31 AM
Oct 6, 10:59 PM
14.55%
chance
27
2914
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2423
413
[Metaculus] Will any Israeli officials charged by the International Criminal Court before 2027?
Nov 28, 12:08 AM
Jan 2, 5:00 PM
89.78%
chance
14
2954
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1725
773
When will Benjamin Netanyahu be replaced as Prime Minister of Israel?
Mar 6, 10:35 AM
Jun 30, 10:59 PM
44
3318
How long will it take the Israeli army to conquer all of Gaza?
Oct 26, 11:31 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
26
5552
Who will the International Criminal Court (ICC) issue arrest warrants for in 2024?
Apr 29, 3:04 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
24
3942
Articles
Latest stories
Israeli Reservist Reports Sexual Violence in Oct. 7 Attacks; Zaka Organization Misinformation and Exploitation Revealed, Haaretz Investigation Reveals Negligence Cases
Authors
6
5 months
Israel
World
UK Parliament Votes to Ban Hizb ut-Tahrir as Terrorist Group on Thursday, Effective Friday
Authors
13
6 months
Israel
Britain
World
400,000 Pro-Palestinian Protesters Rally in Washington D.C., Demand Ceasefire in Gaza
Authors
8
6 months
Israel
World
Israeli Police Face Challenges Locating Sexual Assault Victims and Witnesses During 7 October Attacks, Haaretz Report Reveals
Authors
5
6 months
Israel
World
Politics
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