Oct News

Will Anthropic add voice support to Claude within ~3 months? (before oct 24)

Jun 25, 3:43 AMSep 30, 9:59 PM

50.92%chance

222307

OptionVotes

YES

1019

982

Will ELK still be a major problem by Oct 20, 2026 (according to me)?

Oct 21, 4:37 AMOct 21, 6:59 AM

70.59%chance

29918

OptionVotes

YES

1536

1048

Will S&P 500 increase by over 2% on any day in Oct 2024?

Jan 30, 2:59 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

24.1%chance

11144

OptionVotes

YES

1080

961

Will Anthropic add web browsing support to Claude within ~3 months? (before Oct 24)

Jun 26, 5:21 AMOct 1, 9:59 PM

42.04%chance

8386

OptionVotes

YES

1174

852

Will Manifold think that AI progress between Nov 2023-Oct 2024 will have been >= the progress between Nov 2022-Oct 2023?

Nov 9, 10:13 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

50.54%chance

12467

OptionVotes

YES

1018

977

Will Anthropic's RSP security commitments (as of Oct. 28 2023) cause them to pause scaling for at least one month?

Oct 29, 3:47 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.35%chance

282107

OptionVotes

YES

1110

945

Will Manifold reach 15,000 daily active users (7-day average) before Oct 1st?

Feb 20, 9:59 AMOct 1, 6:59 AM

8%chance

971142832

OptionVotes

YES

2216

979

Will I get into MSc Computing @ Imperial College Oct' 24?

Jan 26, 10:25 PMOct 31, 10:59 PM

78.16%chance

11156

OptionVotes

YES

1129

945

OpenPhil's credibility will be much lower in Jan 2025 than Oct 2023

Oct 14, 5:37 PMOct 21, 10:59 PM

19.82%chance

12856

OptionVotes

YES

1266

910

Will Manifold pay out new trader bonuses based on unique users per day on Oct 1st?

Mar 1, 10:57 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

15.75%chance

15693

OptionVotes

YES

1476

770

SoAIR '23 5/10: Will the GenAI scaling craze see a group spend >$1B to train a single large-scale model by Oct 24?

Oct 19, 2:31 PMOct 27, 3:59 AM

17.47%chance

15712

OptionVotes

YES

1391

880

Will the Oct 7 rape claims be substantiated by an independent investigation?

Dec 5, 3:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.14%chance

7214179

OptionVotes

YES

1420

161

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Oct News

Prediction markets for Oct

Prediction markets for Oct

Prediction markets for Oct

Will Anthropic add voice support to Claude within ~3 months? (before oct 24)

Will ELK still be a major problem by Oct 20, 2026 (according to me)?

Will S&P 500 increase by over 2% on any day in Oct 2024?

Will Anthropic add web browsing support to Claude within ~3 months? (before Oct 24)

Will Manifold think that AI progress between Nov 2023-Oct 2024 will have been >= the progress between Nov 2022-Oct 2023?

Will Anthropic's RSP security commitments (as of Oct. 28 2023) cause them to pause scaling for at least one month?

Will Manifold reach 15,000 daily active users (7-day average) before Oct 1st?

Will I get into MSc Computing @ Imperial College Oct' 24?

OpenPhil's credibility will be much lower in Jan 2025 than Oct 2023

Will Manifold pay out new trader bonuses based on unique users *per day* on Oct 1st?

SoAIR '23 5/10: Will the GenAI scaling craze see a group spend >$1B to train a single large-scale model by Oct 24?

Will the Oct 7 rape claims be substantiated by an independent investigation?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Oct

Prediction markets for Oct

Prediction markets for Oct

Will Anthropic add voice support to Claude within ~3 months? (before oct 24)

Will ELK still be a major problem by Oct 20, 2026 (according to me)?

Will S&P 500 increase by over 2% on any day in Oct 2024?

Will Anthropic add web browsing support to Claude within ~3 months? (before Oct 24)

Will Manifold think that AI progress between Nov 2023-Oct 2024 will have been >= the progress between Nov 2022-Oct 2023?

Will Anthropic's RSP security commitments (as of Oct. 28 2023) cause them to pause scaling for at least one month?

Will Manifold reach 15,000 daily active users (7-day average) before Oct 1st?

Will Manifold pay out new trader bonuses based on unique users per day on Oct 1st?