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Prediction markets for Number Go Up

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

80.31%chance

391548406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16048

13103

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

May 1, 9:58 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

38.02%chance

613183455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17741

10483

Worldcoin scales up to at least 10M World ID sign-ups by August 15, 2024?

Mar 16, 5:09 PMAug 16, 4:59 AM

21.37%chance

183790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15275

10433

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.47%chance

13936016

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5517

1253

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.98%chance

256444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7198

4144

Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.54%chance

144904

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4930

3665

What number streak will I get to on Manifold?

Jan 21, 12:55 PMJan 28, 11:59 PM

730793

Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?

Dec 30, 6:42 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

47.99%chance

25243448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

692

Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR?

Nov 2, 7:43 PMDec 2, 5:59 AM

26.03%chance

798420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1325

842

Will net demand for graphic designers fall by 50% or more by 2025?

Aug 10, 1:31 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

11.95%chance

7715723

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3369

2004

What will be the average P(doom) of AI researchers in 2025?

Jan 26, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.08%chance

562442

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1876

1768

Will we see an increased premium put on offline socialization by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:13 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

36.47%chance

622949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1554

885

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Book 'Number Go Up' by Zeke Faux Receives Positive Reviews, Recognized by The Verge in Crypto Space
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