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Prediction markets for Number

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

51.32%chance

149136503

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1862

1042

What number streak will I get to on Manifold?

Jan 21, 12:55 PMJan 28, 11:59 PM

730793

Will the number of wards and branches in the LDS (Mormon) Church decrease year-over-year between now and 2030?

Mar 23, 1:48 AMMay 2, 5:59 AM

49.25%chance

370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1929

1831

[Higher numbers, more bins] Death Toll in 2023 Israel Hamas war - Palestinian side

Oct 7, 11:35 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

12972052

Will the Reform Party win a nonzero number of seats in the 2024 election?

May 27, 1:33 AMJul 5, 10:59 PM

91.95%chance

3710319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4353

364

Will the [5, 5] Ramsey number by known before 2040?

Apr 8, 5:56 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

70.66%chance

162189

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1348

811

Will China become the world's leading exporter of cars in 2024, by number of cars sold?

Dec 1, 9:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

85.39%chance

523727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2183

1231

Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026?

Jul 11, 7:39 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

47.47%chance

555082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1412

806

Will the 3000ᵗʰ xkcd webcomic have the number 3000 in its title?

Apr 30, 1:18 AMOct 18, 3:59 AM

66.45%chance

231320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

991

930

Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2030?

Apr 8, 8:44 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

63.14%chance

301108

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1193

837

Will the Liberal Democrats be the third-largest party at the next UK general election (third-largest number of seats)?

May 8, 12:30 PMMar 1, 12:00 PM

83.74%chance

8725772

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

543

Trump dies in an odd number year

Jun 26, 7:45 AMJun 27, 6:59 AM

50.46%chance

21420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

990

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Cummings' Offensive Messages Risk Detering Women from Politics, Donelan Warns; Dorries to Release Explosive Book on Shadowy Tory Fixer
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