Not Strong Enough News

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.65%chance

678513

OptionVotes

YES

2655

1191

Will a Theory of Everything in physics be discovered by AI?

Dec 26, 9:29 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

36.2%chance

481666

OptionVotes

YES

1025

930

Will I be laid off before the start of 2025?

Jun 17, 8:06 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

22.55%chance

211431

OptionVotes

YES

1853

540

Will jstlk become an antifan in 2024? (detailed resolution criteria)

Mar 12, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.02%chance

315725

OptionVotes

YES

1293

863

Will all Manifold features be available to the majority of EU users at the end of 2024?

Apr 23, 12:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.57%chance

11496

OptionVotes

YES

1155

805

If I come out as nonbinary, will it go well?

Apr 5, 5:57 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

50%chance

471506

OptionVotes

YES

1066

908

Will a third party candidate “spoil” the 2024 US Presidential election?

Jul 23, 3:19 AMNov 5, 4:59 AM

25.06%chance

19720

OptionVotes

YES

1052

713

In 2026, will Manifold think that Sam Altman abused Annie Altman?

Nov 18, 12:09 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11.78%chance

755163

OptionVotes

YES

1855

797

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

62.07%chance

17243

OptionVotes

YES

1139

891

Will Elon Musk vote for Donald Trump in 2024?

Jan 13, 1:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.2%chance

4413503

OptionVotes

YES

1000

910

Will Russia launch a major offensive on Kharkiv before September?

May 10, 12:21 PMOct 15, 9:59 PM

25.22%chance

374296

OptionVotes

YES

1638

568

Will NYC become the new tech capital of the United States by 2030?

Nov 19, 3:41 PMDec 30, 3:00 PM

13.52%chance

431982

OptionVotes

YES

1284

929

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Not Strong Enough News

Prediction markets for Not Strong Enough

Prediction markets for Not Strong Enough

Prediction markets for Not Strong Enough

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Will a Theory of Everything in physics be discovered by AI?

Will I be laid off before the start of 2025?

Will jstlk become an antifan in 2024? (detailed resolution criteria)

Will all Manifold features be available to the majority of EU users at the end of 2024?

If I come out as nonbinary, will it go well?

Will a third party candidate “spoil” the 2024 US Presidential election?

In 2026, will Manifold think that Sam Altman abused Annie Altman?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Will Elon Musk vote for Donald Trump in 2024?

Will Russia launch a major offensive on Kharkiv before September?

Will NYC become the new tech capital of the United States by 2030?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Not Strong Enough

Prediction markets for Not Strong Enough

Prediction markets for Not Strong Enough

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Will a Theory of Everything in physics be discovered by AI?

Will I be laid off before the start of 2025?

Will jstlk become an antifan in 2024? (detailed resolution criteria)

Will all Manifold features be available to the majority of EU users at the end of 2024?

If I come out as nonbinary, will it go well?

Will a third party candidate “spoil” the 2024 US Presidential election?