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Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?
Jun 3, 2:10 PM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
30.98%
chance
38
14288
Option
Votes
YES
NO
14526
7010
Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?
Jun 3, 9:55 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
29.03%
chance
66
7624
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1564
640
Will S&P500 grow more than 100% within any period which is no longer that 365 days before 2035?
Jun 9, 9:49 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
39.36%
chance
20
1524
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1241
806
There will be no restrictions on Chinese citizens ability to access education or healthcare in any city with more than 10 million people based on rural Hukou by the end of 2025
Sep 8, 12:45 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
25.88%
chance
14
518
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1068
958
Will an AI autonomously earn more than $10,000 not through financial trading, starting with no more than $100 by 2026?
Jun 15, 8:14 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
28.32%
chance
46
5531
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1591
629
Will S&P500 grow more than 100% within any period which is no longer than 365 days before 2030?
Jun 8, 6:42 PM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
20.23%
chance
17
2039
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1986
504
At the end of 2024, will there be more Dunkin’ (YES) locations than 7-Eleven (NO) in the US?
Jan 18, 2:44 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
69.23%
chance
1
25
Option
Votes
NO
YES
95
53
Will more than 40% of respondents identify as having “No religion” in the 2041 UK Census?
Apr 3, 5:20 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
92.44%
chance
7
310
Option
Votes
NO
YES
352
53
Will the 2024 U.S. presidential election result in no candidate receiving more than 270 electoral votes?
May 5, 12:23 AM
Jan 6, 6:59 AM
7.81%
chance
7
370
Option
Votes
YES
NO
344
29
Google vs. Apple: Will Apple (YES) company grow its workforce more in 2024 than Google (NO)?
Dec 10, 6:51 PM
Nov 16, 7:59 AM
88.66%
chance
7
279
Option
Votes
NO
YES
261
87
Is it delusional to give humanity a 25% chance to survive till the last star is no more?
Dec 22, 11:40 PM
36
0
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3 months
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