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Next Gen News
Prediction markets for Next Gen
Prediction markets for Next Gen
Will OpenAI's next-gen math-focused model score at least 95% on the MATH benchmark?
Nov 28, 10:01 AM
Jan 1, 2:59 PM
71.21%
chance
25
967
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1063
961
Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)
Jun 1, 10:25 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
23
3402
When will Nintendo’s next-gen console be released?
Jan 10, 6:09 PM
Jan 18, 4:59 AM
11
754
Will I be happy with an agent publishing research in my name without supervision by release of next-gen AGI?
May 8, 5:09 PM
May 6, 9:59 PM
10.15%
chance
8
213
Option
Votes
YES
NO
298
34
Is GPT-2 the response to phi-3 model ? (with ~GPT-2 size but trained with the next gen OpenAI models)
Apr 30, 6:37 PM
Aug 31, 9:59 PM
1.76%
chance
6
1144
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1280
27
Will Avalanche Energy deliver a prototype of next-gen space propulsion for qualification testing by 12/31/2025?
Aug 10, 9:57 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
8.49%
chance
6
215
Option
Votes
YES
NO
274
43
Will Meta AI's MEGABYTE architecture be used in the next-gen LLMs?
May 26, 2:51 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
44.86%
chance
3
50
Option
Votes
YES
NO
106
73
2x2: Will Labour get majority, will fossil fuels (without imports) compose >33% of UK energy gen next Parliament?
Dec 20, 3:47 PM
Dec 27, 11:59 PM
1
20
Will there be a trans genocide in America in the next four years?
Jun 30, 3:49 AM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
5.09%
chance
25
5568
Option
Votes
YES
NO
4316
232
Who will be the British Prime Minister after the next UK general election? (July 4th)
Apr 9, 8:44 PM
Jul 6, 6:59 AM
41
7072
Will the Workers Party of Britain win any seats at the next UK General Election?
Mar 5, 3:53 AM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
23.58%
chance
29
1584
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1137
929
Will the Liberal Democrats be the third-largest party at the next UK general election (third-largest number of seats)?
May 8, 12:30 PM
Mar 1, 12:00 PM
78.84%
chance
82
17718
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1783
624
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