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Prediction markets for Never Need Me

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

51.92%chance

12142504366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12358

8794

When will Trump serve time?

Jun 29, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:03 PM

21811221335

Will any Manifold user withdraw at least $1000 from Manifold "prize points" in 2024?

Apr 24, 4:07 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59%chance

798901

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2574

2232

Will I be able to pay for my kids' college fund through poker?

Mar 8, 2:14 AMMar 14, 7:59 AM

11.97%chance

9366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

458

145

[@mattyb 2024 Goal] Will I fly a plane at least 10 times in 2024? ✈️

Dec 14, 4:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.09%chance

7658

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1374

929

Is it better for battery health to charge new M1 Macbooks via Magsafe rather than USB-C?

May 19, 12:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.07%chance

211238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1877

1353

⚔️ Can any Manifold user defeat Tumbles at Smash Bros Melee? ⚔️

Mar 5, 3:38 PMSep 2, 6:59 AM

44.62%chance

11301

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NO

YES

1003

990

Will an AI be able to play a type of video game that it wasn't trained on before 2026?

Nov 13, 6:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.13%chance

342014

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1136

685

Will at least half of Americans (aged 30-40) possess crypto currency by 2060?

Nov 7, 4:30 AMDec 2, 7:59 AM

69%chance

193200

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NO

YES

1283

691

Will Ukraine be an official member of NATO by 2025?

Jan 14, 9:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.05%chance

10515818

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YES

NO

3654

1182

Will a "lifetime smoking ban" become law in the UK before the next General Election after July 2024?

May 31, 1:56 PMMay 7, 10:59 PM

53.97%chance

458142

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NO

YES

1083

924

Existential Dread (Permanent)

Apr 21, 6:32 PMApr 22, 4:59 AM

6569

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YES

NO

1004

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