Negative News

If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?

Feb 26, 6:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.65%chance

16762246

OptionVotes

YES

6748

3868

Will some U.S. doctors be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?

Jan 4, 5:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.46%chance

372161

OptionVotes

YES

1054

954

Will some U.S. software engineers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?

Jan 4, 5:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.3%chance

16815427

OptionVotes

YES

2022

1839

Will a sex scandal negatively affect the reputation of AI xrisk in the next five years?

Jun 18, 9:55 PMJun 19, 4:59 AM

70.32%chance

512535

OptionVotes

YES

1240

845

Will a utility suggest customers leave their home AC on full-blast during the day because of net-negative demand by '26?

Jan 27, 2:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.28%chance

454720

OptionVotes

YES

1749

1043

Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.71%chance

713477

OptionVotes

YES

1085

886

Does long-term medical stimulant use (for ADHD) have significant, sticky negative cognitive effects? Resolves to judgement end of 2024.

Feb 9, 12:52 PMDec 31, 2:59 PM

23.6%chance

12266

OptionVotes

YES

1107

946

Will some U.S. lawyers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?

Jan 3, 3:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.78%chance

563561

OptionVotes

YES

1209

837

Will Trump ever say anything negative about Putin’s Russia?

Feb 24, 5:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64.22%chance

19611

OptionVotes

YES

1092

767

Will Donald Trump say something negative about Jimmy Carter within 1 week of his death?

Mar 11, 8:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66.33%chance

471048

OptionVotes

YES

1014

935

Major revelation about Biden's health, negative, before 2026

Feb 8, 3:23 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

72.57%chance

26589

OptionVotes

YES

996

972

Does 1000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?

Oct 21, 5:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.76%chance

11157

OptionVotes

YES

1010

988

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Negative News

Prediction markets for Negative

Prediction markets for Negative

Prediction markets for Negative

If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?

Will some U.S. doctors be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?

Will some U.S. software engineers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?

Will a sex scandal negatively affect the reputation of AI xrisk in the next five years?

Will a utility suggest customers leave their home AC on full-blast during the day because of net-negative demand by '26?

Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?

Does long-term medical stimulant use (for ADHD) have significant, sticky negative cognitive effects? Resolves to judgement end of 2024.

Will some U.S. lawyers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?

Will Trump ever say anything negative about Putin’s Russia?

Will Donald Trump say something negative about Jimmy Carter within 1 week of his death?

Major revelation about Biden's health, negative, before 2026

Does 1000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Negative

Prediction markets for Negative

Prediction markets for Negative

If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?

Will some U.S. doctors be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?

Will some U.S. software engineers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?

Will a sex scandal negatively affect the reputation of AI xrisk in the next five years?

Will a utility suggest customers leave their home AC on full-blast during the day because of net-negative demand by '26?

Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?

Does long-term medical stimulant use (for ADHD) have significant, sticky negative cognitive effects? Resolves to judgement end of 2024.