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Prediction markets for Navigators

Will I fail at navigation in an embarrassing way in 2024?

Jan 19, 5:26 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

70%chance

18981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2094

1668

Will the Navigation Fund have a grant report at the level of funds granted by cause area by the end of 2024?

Jun 2, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.96%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

981

Will the Navigation Fund have a grant report on the level of individual grants by the end of 2024?

Jun 5, 9:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.16%chance

2564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1522

657

if a Cybertruck driver attempts to navigate a body of water, will it be successful?

Dec 3, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23.15%chance

10241

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

980

Will an transformer action AI (like adept.ai) be able to navigate and smoothly click all the "expand all" links to archive an entire Slack channel by 2025? (even if just via OBS Studio)

Feb 20, 7:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.49%chance

15236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

953

will someone try to navigate "seas that aren't too choppy" in a Cybertruck before the end of 2024?

Dec 2, 11:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49%chance

352521

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

819

🐕 Will A.I. Be Significantly Better at, "Egocentric Navigation," by the End of 2024?

Jan 10, 3:18 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

35.8%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

95

Will there be a fully scraped version of manifold.markets (scraped by any program and organically navigable+clickable) produced by 2030?

Jan 7, 2:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.09%chance

9133

OptionVotes

NO

YES

228

167

Will City Street Navigation be available for all Tesla cars with FSD in European Union by the end of 2024?

Aug 8, 12:59 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

66.22%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

111

Will the Navigation Fund make over $10M of grants to AI safety causes in 2024?

Nov 26, 5:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.95%chance

5144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

225

74

Will City Street Navigation be available for all Tesla cars with FSD in China by the end of 2024?

Aug 8, 1:01 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

69.49%chance

245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

95

53

Fix Browser Navigation when Using Certain Tabs

Nov 23, 8:56 PM

00

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