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Prediction markets for Nations

Will Trump beat Biden in national polling at the beginning of July? (538)

May 16, 4:58 PMJul 8, 6:59 PM

98.28%chance

655683206

OptionVotes

NO

YES

424435

8745

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.11%chance

4914888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13524

7471

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.86%chance

3310874

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18386

7579

Conditional on a warrant, will Netanyahu visit at least one nation that recognizes ICC jurisdiction within 6 months?

May 21, 1:46 AMMay 23, 6:59 AM

26.82%chance

181538

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2486

898

Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach the threshold for activation by the 2024 election? [Res. PROB]

Jul 1, 7:32 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

19.38%chance

322274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

947

Will Trump beat Biden in every New York Times/Sienna national poll before election day?

Mar 2, 6:51 PMNov 11, 7:59 AM

69%chance

643639

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2860

522

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.62%chance

1287952

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1879

1457

Will FIFA announce a new national team competition before 2026?

Dec 12, 7:12 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

50%chance

12275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1263

1154

Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?

Jan 14, 1:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.65%chance

7312274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1867

1140

Will Palestine be fully recognized as a United Nations member state by the end of 2027?

Apr 18, 8:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.22%chance

31996

OptionVotes

YES

NO

983

981

Will there be a conflict between 3 or more nation states in the middle east before 2025? [Note nation states]

Nov 4, 10:57 AMNov 9, 11:59 PM

20.44%chance

966632

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1908

495

Will a top US AI lab be nationalized by 2030?

Aug 27, 3:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.79%chance

26688

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

648

Articles

Latest stories

NATO Allies Conduct #NordicResponse24 Exercise with 20,000 Troops in Norway, Finland, Sweden
Authors
4
4 months
Britain
World

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