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Prediction markets for MUST Go

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

26.4%chance

16782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

980

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

May 1, 9:58 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

36.73%chance

613183955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18228

10192

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.98%chance

256444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7198

4144

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.42%chance

162892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7416

3786

By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

55.63%chance

12323821

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1615

1191

Will Arsenii go on at least 1 date before the end of the summer (August 31st, 2024)?

Jun 26, 5:24 AMSep 1, 6:59 AM

84.49%chance

31456

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11079

9475

Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.54%chance

144904

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4930

3665

Will GiveWell fund Eave tubes to control malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.56%chance

103923

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4999

3609

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.59%chance

124930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5204

3441

Will GiveWell fund Eyeglasses to improve workers' manual dexterity by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.85%chance

286395

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7403

3293

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.32%chance

178405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6331

3305

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.29%chance

111709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4632

4000

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