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Prediction markets for Modeler

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

43.89%chance

714302173

OptionVotes

NO

YES

22056

17095

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

49.49%chance

1022399011

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4380

4296

Will the 400B+ open source Llama 3 model rank higher than GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 on the lmsys leaderboard?

Aug 28, 2:56 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

60.36%chance

20254498

OptionVotes

NO

YES

32280

21687

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

May 1, 9:58 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

38.36%chance

610183325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17615

10561

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.38%chance

6823983

OptionVotes

YES

NO

26232

3281

Did an openAI model crack AES-192 encryption?

Nov 26, 8:44 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

0.97%chance

210153757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8163

1482

Will any AI model be capable of involuntarily hypnotizing human beings by EoY 2025?

Jun 7, 2:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7.35%chance

629320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3550

282

GPT-4 #5: Will GPT-4 be a dense model?

Nov 15, 5:54 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

2.61%chance

169278747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10909

252

Will there be a model that has a 75% win rate against the latest iteration of GPT-4 as of January 1st, 2025?

Apr 21, 10:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.35%chance

6915054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2741

2219

Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?

Dec 30, 6:42 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

45.8%chance

24943252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1353

654

Will language models or similar natural language processing technologies, such as ChatGPT, be integrated into dialogue trees for NPCs in triple-A games by the end of 2024

Feb 22, 8:27 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

8.27%chance

19740224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6786

484

Will OpenAI release a technical report on a model designed for AI alignment research? (2024)

Mar 26, 1:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.13%chance

7135484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4318

886

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