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Prediction markets for Model of Conduct

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

May 1, 9:58 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

37.79%chance

608182742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17824

10432

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Mar 18, 6:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.46%chance

276100830

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5123

798

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.42%chance

162892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7416

3786

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.29%chance

111709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4632

4000

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

May 18, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

90.47%chance

373858

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7844

5349

Will GPT-5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

Feb 27, 9:20 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

80.57%chance

867069

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2102

722

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2030?

May 21, 4:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.21%chance

7400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1369

730

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?

Mar 19, 3:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.57%chance

203843

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

955

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.97%chance

24571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

851

Will 1M context windows create a wave of security vulnerabilities affecting Internet usability in 2024?

Feb 22, 12:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.57%chance

231167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1822

905

Will the CMS measurement of the W-boson mass be consistent with the Standard Model?

Sep 15, 8:05 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

89.95%chance

8233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

366

145

Will GPT-4.5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

Feb 29, 8:22 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

53%chance

11275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

300

140

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