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Miss World News
Prediction markets for Miss World
Prediction markets for Miss World
Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)
Nov 12, 8:51 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
13.32%
chance
42
46455
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2293
433
2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.
Mar 11, 12:08 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
20.87%
chance
22
1229
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1102
939
2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.
Mar 11, 12:09 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
73.68%
chance
13
2914
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1075
955
2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today
Mar 11, 12:04 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
26.88%
chance
16
1520
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1243
874
2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.
Mar 11, 12:08 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
57.15%
chance
29
1297
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1033
921
Will there be an "EA university" or similar institution by 31 December 2027?
Aug 23, 4:28 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
14.9%
chance
51
2833
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2059
657
2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today
Mar 11, 12:07 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
86.85%
chance
12
495
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1304
906
Will I (TJ) die before the end of 2027? (eliciting negative of survival likelihoods)
Feb 24, 1:59 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
22%
chance
4
108
Option
Votes
YES
NO
235
112
2024 UCI Men's Elite Road Rankings - Top 20 Game
Dec 3, 2:54 AM
Nov 2, 4:59 AM
9
1732
2024 UCI Women's Elite Road Rankings - Top 10 Game
Dec 3, 6:29 AM
Nov 2, 4:59 AM
5
1093
[Bounty] Will anyone map the optimal building heights of buildings in San Francisco by 2024?
Apr 24, 11:30 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
2.74%
chance
1
248
Option
Votes
YES
NO
298
8
How much will the user retention of a LM be increased via simple reinforcement learning by August of 2024?
Nov 19, 6:02 PM
Aug 1, 9:59 PM
1
30
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5
7 months
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