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Prediction markets for Mentions

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

95.18%chance

306603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4444

225

Will ChatGPT be mentioned in the 2024 US presidential debates?

Aug 3, 5:47 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

31.55%chance

22737184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3405

780

Will a movie with more than 1M$ in revenue before 2025, mention the orthogonality thesis?

Aug 13, 10:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.71%chance

776094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1592

1383

Will Audrey Hale, the Nashville Covenant School shooter's manifesto mention "trans genocide"?

Mar 28, 8:11 PMDec 31, 6:05 PM

12.03%chance

398298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2579

399

Will AI be mentioned at all in the 2024 presidential debates in the United States?

Jan 12, 5:28 PMNov 7, 4:59 AM

69.71%chance

491885

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

912

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be mentioned or quoted in the White House briefing room within 5 years?

May 23, 1:11 PMJun 1, 3:59 AM

64.27%chance

7810796

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1341

746

Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:55 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM

30%chance

10389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

982

Will a planet other than Earth be mentioned by anyone in a Presidential debate in 2024?

Apr 7, 9:17 AMNov 1, 3:59 AM

17.41%chance

732712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1822

836

Elon Musk publicly mentions Manifold by mid 2025

Nov 27, 3:36 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

32.69%chance

10189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

991

Will the first CNN article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:54 AMSep 2, 12:59 AM

30.29%chance

16269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

966

Will Bitcoin be mentioned in the 2024 US Presidential Debate?

May 5, 5:59 PMNov 25, 4:59 AM

18.86%chance

651472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1251

912

Will Manifold be mentioned by name in Ranked Choice, the SQL to Bet On Love?

Mar 20, 5:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

75.78%chance

11788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

960

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