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May Day News
Prediction markets for May Day
Prediction markets for May Day
Will there be a 'Capital Day' on May 1st in the future as 'Labor Day' will get obsolete?
May 1, 10:10 AM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
11.22%
chance
13
454
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1282
918
Will the price of a Costco hot dog raise above $1.50 by Star Wars Day 2028? (May 4th)
Dec 13, 5:56 AM
May 5, 3:59 AM
8.86%
chance
18
4090
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1500
902
Which days will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of? (May 16-Aug 23)
May 14, 9:38 PM
Aug 1, 4:59 AM
146
167481
In what ways will Manifold be like Fliff, the social sports betting app inspiring the Pivot, by end of year?
Apr 25, 6:51 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
20
2166
What will be true about GPT-5?
Mar 12, 1:45 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
179
18948
Which, if any, responsible gaming features will Manifold implement by the end of the year?
Apr 24, 5:18 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
7
88
Will Manifold be more accurate than real-money markets in forecasting the 2024 election?
Oct 26, 5:58 PM
Nov 6, 5:59 AM
44.04%
chance
87
17989
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1994
905
Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?
Nov 30, 4:57 PM
Feb 1, 7:59 AM
33%
chance
155
1231329
Option
Votes
NO
YES
2307
598
Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?
Dec 18, 12:38 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
34.29%
chance
11
1709
Option
Votes
YES
NO
4632
4000
Will Rishi Sunak be replaced as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 1st October 2024? [10,000 Mana subsidy]
Apr 17, 2:17 PM
Sep 30, 10:59 PM
98.61%
chance
243
139503
Option
Votes
NO
YES
97242
6924
Will my posture be essentially normal in a year (on January 17, 2025)?
Jan 18, 4:08 PM
Jan 18, 7:59 AM
40.74%
chance
10
874
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2758
1733
Will a high-volume prediction market expect OpenAI to create AGI before 2030?
Mar 25, 3:20 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
78.54%
chance
71
3284
Option
Votes
NO
YES
3035
1653
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