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Maxim AI News
Prediction markets for Maxim AI
Prediction markets for Maxim AI
What are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?
Mar 25, 10:00 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
58
2719
What will be the maximal score on AIMO Progress Prize 1?
Apr 2, 4:03 PM
Jul 9, 9:59 PM
9
1590
Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?
Jan 25, 12:24 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
19.4%
chance
207
22119
Option
Votes
YES
NO
4089
1178
Will ≥20 Atlas Fellows be actively working on ambitious projects aimed at large-scale problems? (M2500 subsidy)
Oct 4, 5:15 PM
Oct 2, 6:59 AM
40.1%
chance
34
2511
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1781
1157
Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2025?
May 17, 8:50 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
28.6%
chance
30
1875
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1580
633
Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 1:15 PM
Oct 20, 9:59 PM
30.63%
chance
18
1787
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1118
919
Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2026?
May 17, 8:51 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
19.43%
chance
13
1516
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2037
491
Will a paper clip maximizing AGI be developed 5 years after AGI is acheived
Apr 3, 12:28 PM
Dec 11, 4:59 AM
17.05%
chance
13
1112
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1300
884
Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 1:04 PM
Oct 20, 9:59 PM
47.45%
chance
21
1644
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1192
757
Is RLHF good for AI safety? [resolves to poll]
Mar 15, 2:32 PM
Jan 1, 6:00 AM
44.51%
chance
36
1134
Option
Votes
NO
YES
998
951
How fast scales deep alignment from preference learning (e.g. RLHF)?
Mar 26, 9:07 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
1
0
Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM
Dec 18, 9:57 PM
Jul 1, 5:59 AM
49.85%
chance
2
15
Option
Votes
NO
YES
50
50
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