Major Order News

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

Jul 25, 8:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3.9%chance

654152511845

OptionVotes

YES

89553

14779

Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?

Oct 27, 3:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73.77%chance

493219

OptionVotes

YES

2015

1196

Assault weapons ban before 2025

Nov 19, 6:48 AMJan 1, 6:02 AM

24.16%chance

585569

OptionVotes

YES

2304

1301

Will SCOTUS overturn Biden’s AI safety executive order by 2025? ($2600 subsidy)

Oct 30, 11:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.8%chance

262244

OptionVotes

YES

3639

2650

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.52%chance

216782

OptionVotes

YES

3277

305

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 20M views before 2025?

Jan 8, 10:48 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

54.4%chance

321641

OptionVotes

YES

1152

723

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?

Jan 5, 12:58 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM

50%chance

232549

OptionVotes

YES

1050

932

Will GPT-5 be released before Jan 2025?

Jan 19, 6:26 PMJan 6, 10:59 PM

37.81%chance

342587

OptionVotes

YES

1477

449

Will GPT-5 be released before Feb 2025?

Jan 19, 6:22 PMFeb 6, 10:59 PM

55.07%chance

262385

OptionVotes

YES

1241

490

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 100M views before 2026?

Jan 17, 7:15 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

60.7%chance

572283

OptionVotes

YES

1086

786

Will GPT-5 be released before Mar 2025?

Jan 19, 6:14 PMMar 6, 10:59 PM

64%chance

17755

OptionVotes

YES

1127

682

Will any image-generation AI be able to consistently draw simple polygons by the end of 2024?

Aug 14, 6:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

69.8%chance

301122

OptionVotes

YES

997

960

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Major Order News

Prediction markets for Major Order

Prediction markets for Major Order

Prediction markets for Major Order

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?

Assault weapons ban before 2025

Will SCOTUS overturn Biden’s AI safety executive order by 2025? ($2600 subsidy)

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 20M views before 2025?

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?

Will GPT-5 be released before Jan 2025?

Will GPT-5 be released before Feb 2025?

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 100M views before 2026?

Will GPT-5 be released before Mar 2025?

Will any image-generation AI be able to consistently draw simple polygons by the end of 2024?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Major Order

Prediction markets for Major Order

Prediction markets for Major Order

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?

Assault weapons ban before 2025

Will SCOTUS overturn Biden’s AI safety executive order by 2025? ($2600 subsidy)

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 20M views before 2025?

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?