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Prediction markets for machines

If a machine is only capable of asking T/F questions is it considered an ASI if it does a good enough job at it?

Jun 4, 5:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

83.78%chance

141602

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2272

440

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.49%chance

607372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

994

Will China announce development of its own extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine in 2024?

Dec 1, 9:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.25%chance

426811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3013

840

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.24%chance

696475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1684

1350

In 2024, will CISA report a case of tampering with US voting machines to alter vote count?

Dec 1, 8:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.86%chance

311258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1511

890

Will humans send AND receive a message telepathically via brain machine interface before 2026?

Jan 10, 8:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.59%chance

492229

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

976

Will Intuitive Machine's IM-3 mission successfully land on the moon?

Sep 10, 3:42 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.13%chance

191435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

982

Will we have laundry folding machine by 2030?

Feb 5, 11:04 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

55.18%chance

17500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

942

Will the Machine Intelligence Research Institute exist in 2030?

Apr 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.83%chance

14541

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1117

939

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

54.28%chance

474284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1282

684

will there be vending machines that use LLMs to try to convince passers-by to buy stuff before 2028?

Apr 10, 11:01 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

24.27%chance

23547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1179

918

Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?

Jun 25, 2:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.6%chance

354249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1670

599

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Federal Appeals Court Divisively Rules Only US Government Can Sue Under Voting Rights Act; Georgia Voting Machines Case Heads to Trial in 2024
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8 months
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