LLMs News

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.32%chance

26360448

OptionVotes

YES

2550

1879

Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?

Jun 2, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

6613968

OptionVotes

YES

2267

1026

LLMs to the moon? (By 2030)

Dec 18, 4:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

47.54%chance

391199

OptionVotes

YES

1090

825

[Metaculus] Will a major cyberattack/malware use LLMs in some important way before January 1st, 2025? [Ṁ1000 subsidy]

Oct 5, 4:01 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

47.93%chance

191565

OptionVotes

YES

1379

1305

By 2025 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?

Mar 24, 9:58 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

23.42%chance

463120

OptionVotes

YES

1357

838

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.1%chance

727101

OptionVotes

YES

1232

727

Will either of Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2024 elections?

Apr 10, 5:37 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

23.25%chance

551527

OptionVotes

YES

1658

1423

Are autoregressive LLMs a doomed paradigm? (Inspired by LeCun's tweet)

Apr 9, 6:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.72%chance

251501

OptionVotes

YES

1243

831

Will Chrome, Safari, or Firefox add native support for local LLMs in 2024? (Opera just did)

Apr 5, 7:48 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70.2%chance

797033

OptionVotes

YES

1531

876

Will there be a game that relies heavily on using LLMs during gameplay that would break 1 million sales before 2025?

Mar 4, 8:35 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.21%chance

749101

OptionVotes

YES

2500

427

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

Feb 13, 3:50 PMJun 30, 9:00 PM

89%chance

452690

OptionVotes

YES

1680

857

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.2%chance

13607

OptionVotes

YES

1250

613

Latest stories

CMMMU Sets New Chinese LLM Benchmark; Google's AI Video Generator Marks Multimodal Era
Authors
19
5 months
China
AI
World
Microsoft Unveils Phi-2, 2.7B Parameter Model, Outperforms Google's Gemini Nano and LLMs
Authors
7
7 months
AI
Tech

LLMs News

Prediction markets for LLMs

Prediction markets for LLMs

Prediction markets for LLMs

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?

LLMs to the moon? (By 2030)

[Metaculus] Will a major cyberattack/malware use LLMs in some important way before January 1st, 2025? [Ṁ1000 subsidy]

By 2025 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Will either of Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2024 elections?

Are autoregressive LLMs a doomed paradigm? (Inspired by LeCun's tweet)

Will Chrome, Safari, or Firefox add native support for local LLMs in 2024? (Opera just did)

Will there be a game that relies heavily on using LLMs during gameplay that would break 1 million sales before 2025?

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for LLMs

Prediction markets for LLMs

Prediction markets for LLMs

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?

LLMs to the moon? (By 2030)

[Metaculus] Will a major cyberattack/malware use LLMs in some important way before January 1st, 2025? [Ṁ1000 subsidy]

By 2025 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Will either of Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2024 elections?