Live News

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

89%chance

971014650

OptionVotes

YES

1091

998

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000

Mar 8, 5:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.23%chance

99359673

OptionVotes

YES

1752

1517

Will I live to be at least 200 years old?

Nov 18, 2:49 PMOct 16, 10:59 PM

15.75%chance

10677886

OptionVotes

YES

2318

1810

Will @firstuserhere live upto the age of 420?

Aug 26, 7:05 AMJun 16, 6:29 PM

15%chance

3241371

OptionVotes

YES

1017

979

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.42%chance

162892

OptionVotes

YES

7416

3786

Do we live in a simulation?

Nov 24, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

30.18%chance

411963

OptionVotes

YES

1154

910

Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?

Mar 26, 12:41 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

56.13%chance

13136055

OptionVotes

YES

1574

1196

Will Sam Shankland (re)reach a live classical rating of 2700chess.com in 2024?

May 18, 3:09 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

53.34%chance

524668

OptionVotes

YES

3662

3351

Will Larry, Chief Mouser to the Cabinet Office, live to see another Prime Minister?

Apr 30, 8:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

90.27%chance

366756

OptionVotes

YES

11116

3497

When will the quiver.trade futarchy mechanism go live?

Jun 19, 3:32 PMJul 2, 2:59 AM

4431

Will a living US President (past or current) pass away before the end of 2024?

Dec 16, 3:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

77%chance

978394

OptionVotes

YES

4487

3810

Will I live to be 200 years old?

Dec 13, 8:58 AMJan 30, 11:00 PM

16%chance

6338032

OptionVotes

YES

1837

871

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Live News

Prediction markets for Live

Prediction markets for Live

Prediction markets for Live

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000

Will I live to be at least 200 years old?

Will @firstuserhere live upto the age of 420?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Do we live in a simulation?

Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?

Will Sam Shankland (re)reach a live classical rating of 2700chess.com in 2024?

Will Larry, Chief Mouser to the Cabinet Office, live to see another Prime Minister?

When will the quiver.trade futarchy mechanism go live?

Will a living US President (past or current) pass away before the end of 2024?

Will I live to be 200 years old?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Live

Prediction markets for Live

Prediction markets for Live

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000

Will I live to be at least 200 years old?

Will @firstuserhere live upto the age of 420?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Do we live in a simulation?

Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?

Will Sam Shankland (re)reach a live classical rating of 2700chess.com in 2024?

Will Larry, Chief Mouser to the Cabinet Office, live to see another Prime Minister?

When will the quiver.trade futarchy mechanism go live?