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Liberation Day News
Prediction markets for Liberation Day
Prediction markets for Liberation Day
Will Peter Dutton be leader of the Liberal Party of Australia on election day of the next Australian federal election?
Feb 16, 12:59 AM
Sep 29, 3:59 AM
84.04%
chance
22
2164
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1434
823
Conditinal on Crimea being taken by Ukranian army, will Russia avoid using nuclear weapons?
Dec 21, 11:21 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
87.19%
chance
46
2913
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1131
951
Will "induced wind" power plants exist by 2050?
Jul 11, 8:20 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
7.58%
chance
12
1158
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1330
932
What will be true of the next general election for the House of Representatives in Australia?
Jan 3, 12:55 PM
Sep 27, 1:59 PM
14
759
Will the party that wins the next Australian federal election have a majority in the Senate?
Mar 16, 8:10 AM
Sep 27, 2:29 PM
27.54%
chance
7
194
Option
Votes
YES
NO
258
133
Any of these 50 LLM-generated disasters happens in the USA in 2024 (improved!)
Jan 1, 4:11 PM
Jan 1, 6:59 AM
38.23%
chance
2
15
Option
Votes
YES
NO
105
78
Will Fumio Kishida win Japan's next election (31 Oct 2025 or earlier)?
Apr 19, 2:30 AM
Nov 1, 6:59 AM
10.48%
chance
6
357
Option
Votes
YES
NO
307
29
(Canada) Will the Liberals poll within 10 points of the Conservatives before next Federal Election?
Apr 4, 3:09 PM
Oct 21, 5:59 AM
44.22%
chance
6
105
Option
Votes
YES
NO
240
202
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Exclusive: Trump Touts Nov 5 as 'Liberation Day' in Historic CPAC Preview
Authors
6
4 months
Politics
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