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Leverage News
Prediction markets for Leverage
Prediction markets for Leverage
Will Sam Altman leverage OpenAI's success to substantial personal gain?
Sep 17, 6:10 AM
Dec 19, 4:59 AM
61.42%
chance
22
1232
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1128
881
Will Geoff Anders (Director at Leverage Research) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Jan 5, 3:29 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
14.61%
chance
14
655
Option
Votes
NO
YES
986
927
Will Kerry Vaughan (manager at Leverage Research) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Jan 5, 2:26 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
8.09%
chance
12
382
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1157
961
Will David Phelps get engaged to one of the Love on Leverage Contestants by December 31st 2025?
Feb 15, 1:14 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
40.98%
chance
1
10
Option
Votes
YES
NO
360
342
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
Mar 31, 6:42 PM
Jul 6, 6:59 PM
333
291183
Which of the following ACX Grants Impact Certificates will be bought back at a higher value than they were sold for?
Mar 7, 5:04 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
6
182
Which ACX Grants 2024 impact certs will meet their minimum funding on Manifund?
Mar 13, 10:19 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
1
2
Will an open source model beat GPT-4 in 2024?
Dec 16, 1:19 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
65.14%
chance
51
5046
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1301
750
Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
Jun 10, 12:18 PM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
54.64%
chance
53
1765
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1185
1029
Will OpenAI Release a Chatbot Using the Q* Algorithm in 2024
Nov 23, 9:47 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
23.07%
chance
19
1029
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1234
911
Will Ukraine bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
Jul 1, 5:10 AM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
33.31%
chance
10
290
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1046
969
Will an AI-powered dating app significantly improve on the current state of the art by October 2024?
Sep 22, 6:49 PM
Oct 2, 6:59 AM
21.67%
chance
36
2164
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1258
898
Articles
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Actress Gina Bellman Reveals Breast Cancer Diagnosis Inspired by Kate Middleton's Battle
Authors
5
3 months
Culture
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