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Prediction markets for Level Three

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.03%chance

144070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5697

3703

Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?

Jan 25, 12:24 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19.4%chance

20722119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4089

1178

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.11%chance

271627

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1112

876

Will humanity exit the semi-anarchic default condition before 2035?

May 27, 2:32 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.5%chance

141262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2032

492

Will there be an ISIS terrorist attack in France in 2024?

Mar 26, 7:40 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43.43%chance

281166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1267

718

Will AI be able to provide an end-to-end plan for bioweapons production by 2026 EOY?

Jan 16, 4:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32%chance

186561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

832

Lionel Messi will score a hat-trick in a match for Inter Miami by 2025

Aug 15, 5:10 AMJul 1, 4:00 AM

85.41%chance

10334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

962

Will non-human intelligence be confirmed before artificial general intelligence?

Dec 25, 2:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15%chance

17376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

988

928

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

11.4%chance

181414

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

941

Will the right-wing party AfD participate in a state-level government in Germany for the first time in 2024?

Jan 30, 4:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6.89%chance

365500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1762

878

Which books in this list will I "really like"?

Mar 27, 3:20 PMMar 28, 6:59 AM

12218313

[Polymarket] How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2024?

Mar 21, 11:57 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

8399

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