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Last Four In News
Prediction markets for Last Four In
Prediction markets for Last Four In
Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 7:16 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
19.92%
chance
9
2626
Option
Votes
NO
YES
4193
4124
WhiteBox Research will have at least four fellows spending ≥10 h/wk on an alignment-oriented project by EoY 2024.
Jun 20, 12:08 PM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
78.52%
chance
3
989
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1912
523
Will a Republican win the popular vote by 2037?
Jul 26, 5:19 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
43.82%
chance
19
358
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1022
958
Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 (2021 USD) per unit before 2025?
Oct 22, 7:00 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
13%
chance
11
1115
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1568
783
Will SpaceX launch a nine-engine Starship variant in 2024?
Nov 27, 5:15 AM
Jan 2, 12:59 PM
3.64%
chance
23
2934
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2685
741
Will women make up at least 35% of Fortune 500 company board members in 2024-2025?
Feb 16, 4:06 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
20.65%
chance
5
91
Option
Votes
YES
NO
201
98
Will New Hampshire remain the freest state in the United States, according to the Cato Institute, from 2023 to 2033?
May 31, 12:59 AM
Jan 1, 8:00 PM
32.76%
chance
5
59
Option
Votes
YES
NO
187
126
What will be the cause of the next declared WHO "global health emergency"?
Aug 2, 11:26 PM
Dec 10, 4:59 AM
8
117
How many EU countries will have far-right governments in 2027?
Jan 2, 8:02 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
7
725
Will women make up at least 30% of Fortune 500 company board members in 2024-2025?
Feb 16, 4:04 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
80.06%
chance
2
90
Option
Votes
NO
YES
142
32
Will Oregon voters pass or fail HB 2004 (Ranked Choice Voting) and by what margin?
Feb 12, 4:31 AM
Nov 6, 4:00 AM
21
711
Will the four year bitcoin cycle continue?
Feb 3, 7:12 AM
Nov 11, 7:59 AM
38.14%
chance
5
72
Option
Votes
YES
NO
170
133
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