Know Your Rights News

Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?

Apr 18, 12:18 AMJul 7, 4:00 PM

262327086

Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?

Aug 29, 5:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.21%chance

481496588

OptionVotes

YES

1126

1045

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

May 1, 9:58 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

37.79%chance

608182742

OptionVotes

YES

17824

10432

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Oct 24, 3:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5055650

Will I become vegan/vegetarian/pescatarian before 2030?

Jun 2, 1:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.22%chance

13945

OptionVotes

YES

1080

961

Before 2026, Will DL systems outperform humans at describing a picture in words to make human mental images match it?

Jun 19, 12:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.46%chance

113656

OptionVotes

YES

1031

970

Will I date someone from Nueva? (Ṁ999 Subsidy)

Aug 19, 4:36 AMApr 13, 6:59 AM

69.58%chance

13499

OptionVotes

YES

1338

1190

Will Manifold implement robust and successful incentives for publicizing information?

Nov 14, 11:09 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14.5%chance

22803

OptionVotes

YES

1305

907

Will a right to digital privacy be established in the USA saying your AI cannot be used against you in a court of law?

May 6, 11:40 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

13.39%chance

22578

OptionVotes

YES

1153

1054

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

35.39%chance

14835

OptionVotes

YES

1351

740

A year from now, will Manifold think this prediction about the future of LLM's has held up?

Jun 26, 5:23 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

59.33%chance

9778

OptionVotes

YES

1208

828

Will I consider Sam Altman a grifter by the end of 2026?

Jul 27, 3:26 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

52.64%chance

584273

OptionVotes

YES

1062

937

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Know Your Rights News

Prediction markets for Know Your Rights

Prediction markets for Know Your Rights

Prediction markets for Know Your Rights

Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?

Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Will I become vegan/vegetarian/pescatarian before 2030?

Before 2026, Will DL systems outperform humans at describing a picture in words to make human mental images match it?

Will I date someone from Nueva? (Ṁ999 Subsidy)

Will Manifold implement robust and successful incentives for publicizing information?

Will a right to digital privacy be established in the USA saying your AI cannot be used against you in a court of law?

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

A year from now, will Manifold think this prediction about the future of LLM's has held up?

Will I consider Sam Altman a grifter by the end of 2026?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Know Your Rights

Prediction markets for Know Your Rights

Prediction markets for Know Your Rights

Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?

Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Will I become vegan/vegetarian/pescatarian before 2030?

Before 2026, Will DL systems outperform humans at describing a picture in words to make human mental images match it?

Will I date someone from Nueva? (Ṁ999 Subsidy)